Friday, May 29, 2026

Elementary Schools Recovered Fastest from COVID Attendance Loss. High Schools Are Stuck.

Hawaii elementary schools have recovered 65.5% of their COVID chronic absenteeism spike, while high schools have recovered just 46.3%, and the gap between school levels is widening.

Correction: This article originally used an inconsistent classification for combined "High & Intermediate" schools, producing incorrect Middle and High school averages. The corrected figures use a consistent name-based classification.

Hawaii's elementary schools experienced the most extreme chronic absenteeism spike during COVID: their average rate jumped from 13.2% in pre-pandemic 2019 to 42.8% in 2022, a 29.6 percentage point increase. High schools, by contrast, spiked from 19.4% to 32.8% -- a smaller jump of 13.4 points.

But the recovery tells a different story. Elementary schools have clawed back 65.5% of their spike, dropping to 23.4% in 2025. High schools have recovered just 46.3%, sitting at 26.6%. The school level that fell hardest has bounced back fastest. The one that fell least has barely moved.

A Three-Speed Recovery

The three school levels are recovering at distinctly different paces:

Level 2019 2022 Peak 2025 Spike Recovered % Recovered
Elementary 13.2% 42.8% 23.4% +29.6pp 19.4pp 65.5%
Middle 15.3% 36.3% 25.6% +21.0pp 10.7pp 51.0%
High 19.4% 32.8% 26.6% +13.4pp 6.2pp 46.3%

The result is a convergence that obscures meaningful differences. In 2019, elementary schools were at 13.2% and middle schools at 15.3%, while high schools were noticeably higher at 19.4%. By 2025, the three levels have compressed into a narrower band (23.4% to 26.6%), but high schools remain the outlier -- and now for a different reason. Pre-COVID, high schools were higher because of structural factors. Post-COVID, they are higher because they have not recovered.

Chronic absenteeism by school level

Why the Youngest Students Came Back

The elementary recovery likely reflects the developmental reality of younger children: they do not have the autonomy to choose not to attend school. When pandemic disruptions eased and parents returned to in-person work, elementary students returned to school because their parents brought them.

High school students are different. They have the age, the transportation ability, and in many cases the legal status to make their own attendance decisions. Remote learning during the pandemic gave many older students a taste of schedule flexibility, and some have not returned to the routine of daily in-person attendance.

The high school stall is visible in the year-over-year improvements: in 2025, high schools improved by just 0.6 percentage points, compared to 1.8 for elementary and 1.0 for middle school. The rate of recovery is flattening at all levels, but fastest at the high school level.

Recovery by level

The High School Problem Is National

Hawaii's pattern mirrors a national trend. High school chronic absenteeism has been the most resistant to post-COVID recovery in states across the country. The dynamics are similar everywhere: older students with more autonomy, mental health challenges that peak in adolescence, and a labor market that offers immediate income to students who might otherwise attend school.

But in Hawaii, the high school problem has a local dimension. The state's tourism-dependent economy creates abundant service-sector jobs that are accessible to teenagers, and the high cost of living creates financial pressure on families that may make part-time work feel necessary rather than optional.

Year-over-year improvement by level

Three Recoveries, Not One

Put simply: a second grader who was chronically absent in 2022 is probably back in the classroom. A tenth grader who was chronically absent in 2022 is probably still missing school.

The elementary recovery is real. The high school recovery is barely visible. Calling Hawaii's attendance picture "improving" is technically accurate and practically misleading -- it depends entirely on which schools you look at.

The Hawaii Department of Education did not respond to a request for comment.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

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